By Lilia Lopez

Republicans need some form of immigration reform to assure electoral success in the upcoming November legislative elections, this much is clear to most US political analysts these days. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like a Bush administration victory on this issue is going to be quite as easy as they’d hoped. 

As the streets of major US cities in early May showed the administration and the world, the growing influence of the US immigrant population, largely Latino, is a force to be reckoned with. With US midterm elections on the horizon in November, both Republican and Democratic strategists are realizing that Latino voters and their concerns are a powerful element in not only today’s political climate but will be even more so in the future. 

But before we think about 2056, politicians have the current electorate to deal with. Unfortunately for them, many recent public opinion polls on the issue offer contradicting views. Some note that the majority of the American public favors increased border security measures but also has a great deal of sympathy for illegal immigrants and supports greater amnesty for illegal immigrants. 
In conjunction with the increased immigration discussion finally taking place in Washington, the New York Times reported in early May that border arrests are significantly higher in recent months as compared to the same period in 2005. While the US Border Control attributed the increase to increased security measures, immigration scholars said it was more likely that crossing attempts were rebounding after a post- Sept 11 economic slump and a resurge in repeated crossing attempts. 

In the San Diego border area, one of the most heavily fortified, 90,843 individuals have been apprehended since October, a 33% increase from the same period last year. In the area spanning San Diego to Houston, crossings increased 6% from 2005 to 2006. 

Despite the glaring reality the statistics provide, many immigration experts cannot agree on the cause. The University of San Diego’s Wayne A. Corelius attributes the rise to misinformed news of a guest worker program that gives many immigrants hope of attaining legal status once in the U.S. 

But the director of an immigrant assistance center in Tijuana, Casa del Migrante offered a different perspective. The Rev. Luis Kyy said most migrants aren’t familiar with the idea of a guest worker program. Instead, he cites the extreme poverty in Mexico and Central American and word from friends and relatives about job opportunities in the U.S.